Author Topic: [LTCGear] legit discussion  (Read 603139 times)

Offline thecrazyminer

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Re: LTCGear legit discussion
« Reply #75 on: October 18, 2014, 11:43:01 PM »
Anyone here ever have trouble with affiliate links?
Someone bought some packages under my link, they confirmed that the cookie had my link in it and it never showed up under my affiliates..
Of course Chris isn't emailing me back for some reason.

Did their order switch to processing?

Did they pay the exact amount?

Yes and yes
How large was the order?

Offline thorp

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Re: LTCGear legit discussion
« Reply #76 on: October 19, 2014, 12:06:52 AM »
Ponzi scheme red flags, from the U.S. SEC.

Quote
What are some Ponzi scheme "red flags"?

Many Ponzi schemes share common characteristics. Look for these warning signs:

  • High investment returns with little or no risk. Every investment carries some degree of risk, and investments yielding higher returns typically involve more risk. Be highly suspicious of any "guaranteed" investment opportunity.
  • Overly consistent returns. Investment values tend to go up and down over time, especially those offering potentially high returns. Be suspect of an investment that continues to generate regular, positive returns regardless of overall market conditions.
  • Unregistered investments. Ponzi schemes typically involve investments that have not been registered with the SEC or with state regulators. Registration is important because it provides investors with access to key information about the company's management, products, services, and finances.
  • Unlicensed sellers. Federal and state securities laws require investment professionals and their firms to be licensed or registered. Most Ponzi schemes involve unlicensed individuals or unregistered firms.
  • Secretive and/or complex strategies. Avoiding investments you do not understand, or for which you cannot get complete information, is a good rule of thumb.
  • Issues with paperwork. Do not accept excuses regarding why you cannot review information about an investment in writing. Also, account statement errors and inconsistencies may be signs that funds are not being invested as promised.
  • Difficulty receiving payments. Be suspicious if you do not receive a payment or have difficulty cashing out your investment. Keep in mind that Ponzi scheme promoters routinely encourage participants to "roll over" investments and sometimes promise returns offering even higher returns on the amount rolled over.

The ones most applicable here are high investment returns with little or no risk; overly consistent returns; secretive and/or complex strategies; and (mostly earlier on) difficulty receiving payments.

Offline Sukarti

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Re: LTCGear legit discussion
« Reply #77 on: October 19, 2014, 02:52:13 AM »
Ponzi scheme red flags, from the U.S. SEC.

Quote
What are some Ponzi scheme "red flags"?

Many Ponzi schemes share common characteristics. Look for these warning signs:

  • High investment returns with little or no risk. Every investment carries some degree of risk, and investments yielding higher returns typically involve more risk. Be highly suspicious of any "guaranteed" investment opportunity.
  • Overly consistent returns. Investment values tend to go up and down over time, especially those offering potentially high returns. Be suspect of an investment that continues to generate regular, positive returns regardless of overall market conditions.
  • Unregistered investments. Ponzi schemes typically involve investments that have not been registered with the SEC or with state regulators. Registration is important because it provides investors with access to key information about the company's management, products, services, and finances.
  • Unlicensed sellers. Federal and state securities laws require investment professionals and their firms to be licensed or registered. Most Ponzi schemes involve unlicensed individuals or unregistered firms.
  • Secretive and/or complex strategies. Avoiding investments you do not understand, or for which you cannot get complete information, is a good rule of thumb.
  • Issues with paperwork. Do not accept excuses regarding why you cannot review information about an investment in writing. Also, account statement errors and inconsistencies may be signs that funds are not being invested as promised.
  • Difficulty receiving payments. Be suspicious if you do not receive a payment or have difficulty cashing out your investment. Keep in mind that Ponzi scheme promoters routinely encourage participants to "roll over" investments and sometimes promise returns offering even higher returns on the amount rolled over.

The ones most applicable here are high investment returns with little or no risk; overly consistent returns; secretive and/or complex strategies; and (mostly earlier on) difficulty receiving payments.

How do those apply to LTCGear?

You buy mining hashing, you get mining hashing. These rates of return are consistent with mining profitability for shares purchased.

Chris/Bee is a little secretive but no more so than any other ASIC manufacturer to date.

I've never read about an issue with receiving payment or credit that wasn't resolved within a few days.

Maybe come up with some original or factual instead of overly vague blanket statements.

There are reasons to be concerned but you didn't really hit any of them.

Offline cashman

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Re: LTCGear legit discussion
« Reply #78 on: October 19, 2014, 03:38:15 AM »
I just wish i was friends with Bee in person and could visit his farm i would max out my credit cards for cash advances lol to buy shares.

Another crazy thing is some people on here are making 1000's of dollars a week imagine how much Bee is making.

Offline Forceflow

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Re: LTCGear legit discussion
« Reply #79 on: October 19, 2014, 03:51:31 AM »
I just wish i was friends with Bee in person and could visit his farm i would max out my credit cards for cash advances lol to buy shares.

Another crazy thing is some people on here are making 1000's of dollars a week imagine how much Bee is making.

Bee has been reliable.  There is nothing complicated about payouts -- he is very transparent with how it is calculated.  We could use more transparency on other issues but we definitely aren't in the dark with how much we get paid and when that payout happens.

As Sukarti mentioned, we also are buying hashpower. That is how we know what to expect in terms of payout.

My final point is that there is no evidence that it is a ponzi scheme.  There is no way he could make payouts for 1+ year if it was a ponzi.  He can't generate $ (which are completely fungible) vs. LTC (fixed, noninflationary, must acquire actual coins).  It just doesn't add up no matter how much people yell ponzi I don't see any hard data other than data indicating it isn't.

Offline cashman

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Re: LTCGear legit discussion
« Reply #80 on: October 19, 2014, 04:08:31 AM »
I just wish i was friends with Bee in person and could visit his farm i would max out my credit cards for cash advances lol to buy shares.

Another crazy thing is some people on here are making 1000's of dollars a week imagine how much Bee is making.

Bee has been reliable.  There is nothing complicated about payouts -- he is very transparent with how it is calculated.  We could use more transparency on other issues but we definitely aren't in the dark with how much we get paid and when that payout happens.

As Sukarti mentioned, we also are buying hashpower. That is how we know what to expect in terms of payout.

My final point is that there is no evidence that it is a ponzi scheme.  There is no way he could make payouts for 1+ year if it was a ponzi.  He can't generate $ (which are completely fungible) vs. LTC (fixed, noninflationary, must acquire actual coins).  It just doesn't add up no matter how much people yell ponzi I don't see any hard data other than data indicating it isn't.

I think he is legit but i'm just saying if i was 100% sure i would jump in and bet my bottom dollar :)

Offline Sukarti

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Re: LTCGear legit discussion
« Reply #81 on: October 19, 2014, 05:20:53 AM »
My biggest fear is the near endless shares for sale in the past 30 days. Prior to that it was "sort of" hard to get hashing power.

There has been over 4k orders since the ASICs were released 2 months ago. The last 30 days (3k orders ago) you could include more than one miner in your order.

Unless A TON of people screwed up their orders that is considerable hashing even if he is spreading it across LTC/FTC/DRK/VTC & Multipools.

Shares seem to be going out of stock again more regularly past 2 days, guess we'll see how things progress into next week.

Offline AizenSou

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Re: LTCGear legit discussion
« Reply #82 on: October 19, 2014, 01:29:03 PM »
My biggest fear is the near endless shares for sale in the past 30 days. Prior to that it was "sort of" hard to get hashing power.

There has been over 4k orders since the ASICs were released 2 months ago. The last 30 days (3k orders ago) you could include more than one miner in your order.

Unless A TON of people screwed up their orders that is considerable hashing even if he is spreading it across LTC/FTC/DRK/VTC & Multipools.

Shares seem to be going out of stock again more regularly past 2 days, guess we'll see how things progress into next week.

You have the same fear with many others now, even me. But I could assure you a little bit that no way all 3k orders go to processing mode. Myself has placed over 10 orders and didn't manage to pay it on time so I just ignore these.

Offline Sukarti

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Re: LTCGear legit discussion
« Reply #83 on: October 19, 2014, 01:46:55 PM »
My biggest fear is the near endless shares for sale in the past 30 days. Prior to that it was "sort of" hard to get hashing power.

There has been over 4k orders since the ASICs were released 2 months ago. The last 30 days (3k orders ago) you could include more than one miner in your order.

Unless A TON of people screwed up their orders that is considerable hashing even if he is spreading it across LTC/FTC/DRK/VTC & Multipools.

Shares seem to be going out of stock again more regularly past 2 days, guess we'll see how things progress into next week.

You have the same fear with many others now, even me. But I could assure you a little bit that no way all 3k orders go to processing mode. Myself has placed over 10 orders and didn't manage to pay it on time so I just ignore these.

I agree that not all orders fulfill, I have a handful I have screwed up on or forgot to apply the coupon. You have the 830x and mods to consider as well.

However I think that is easily offset by the quantity orders that have been available for 3/4 of the order time. I've personally made a lot of 2x buy's with a few orders much bigger than that.

Hashrates pulled off coinwars

FTC - 106GH
DRK - 65GH
VTC - 2GH
LTC - 1030GH

It's possible he has hashing at his own multipool or any number of different multipools, most of which will outperform LTC on average.

I guess I'll just keep running on hope  ;) And be grateful I have full ROI in my wallet already  8)


Offline skuser

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Re: LTCGear legit discussion
« Reply #84 on: October 20, 2014, 08:27:14 AM »
Some good observations here, except the idea of hashrate hidden in multipools, because it would have to show up in currencies hashrates anyway which is not.
I've been watching order numbers and shopping cart page closely recent few days and my estimate is he could have sold almost 200 GH/s of hashrate within last 7 days only.  :o

Each pyramid scheme ends when dividends due become larger than current incoming cash-flow,which is not that hard to get currently because the orders are pouring in. Also new option of converting dividends to new shares can help to slow down the pressure for payouts. Next 2 weeks should be still OK, however I think any kind of 'multiplication' at this levels will be unbearable anymore.

And please don't argue that this is not Ponzi because Chris is kind and pays on time. Better give me info what secret currencies is he mining with hundreds of GH/s because LTC's hashrate hasn't almost changed for month. I understand that this project surely started as serious one, but various unknown reasons (huge income of anniversary orders at the end of august and sudden inflow of big money?) can spoil man's mind....



Offline AizenSou

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Re: LTCGear legit discussion
« Reply #85 on: October 20, 2014, 08:36:59 AM »
Some good observations here, except the idea of hashrate hidden in multipools, because it would have to show up in currencies hashrates anyway which is not.
I've been watching order numbers and shopping cart page closely recent few days and my estimate is he could have sold almost 200 GH/s of hashrate within last 7 days only.  :o

Each pyramid scheme ends when dividends due become larger than current incoming cash-flow,which is not that hard to get currently because the orders are pouring in. Also new option of converting dividends to new shares can help to slow down the pressure for payouts. Next 2 weeks should be still OK, however I think any kind of 'multiplication' at this levels will be unbearable anymore.

And please don't argue that this is not Ponzi because Chris is kind and pays on time. Better give me info what secret currencies is he mining with hundreds of GH/s because LTC's hashrate hasn't almost changed for month. I understand that this project surely started as serious one, but various unknown reasons (huge income of anniversary orders at the end of august and sudden inflow of big money?) can spoil man's mind....

Yes I agree to most of your concerns, but your first reason is somehow unclear. Tell me first how did you calculate the 200ghs within 7 days?
If the number you're imagining is unreal so none of your concerns are legit, IMHO.

Offline skuser

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Re: LTCGear legit discussion
« Reply #86 on: October 20, 2014, 09:48:18 AM »

Yes I agree to most of your concerns, but your first reason is somehow unclear. Tell me first how did you calculate the 200ghs within 7 days?
If the number you're imagining is unreal so none of your concerns are legit, IMHO.

Today at midnight GMT he added 77 items as stock - now we are at 49. So in the 9 hours he sold 28 pcs, he will have very bad day if he doesn't sell 100. Of course lot's can be failed orders, but how many? 20% ? At these numbers we are at 100 GH/s per week, but the after dividend days are much stronger in sales - On dividend day, Oct 17th he also added 77 pcs in stock but sold them within half day and then restocked many times during the weekend. He could have sold about 80 GH/s just during the weekend.

Important thing is I am only making assumptions based on data I can see. If the in stock amount on the page is just random number I have no other proof. The same with order numbers. Go figure.

Offline AizenSou

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Re: LTCGear legit discussion
« Reply #87 on: October 20, 2014, 12:28:25 PM »

Yes I agree to most of your concerns, but your first reason is somehow unclear. Tell me first how did you calculate the 200ghs within 7 days?
If the number you're imagining is unreal so none of your concerns are legit, IMHO.

Today at midnight GMT he added 77 items as stock - now we are at 49. So in the 9 hours he sold 28 pcs, he will have very bad day if he doesn't sell 100. Of course lot's can be failed orders, but how many? 20% ? At these numbers we are at 100 GH/s per week, but the after dividend days are much stronger in sales - On dividend day, Oct 17th he also added 77 pcs in stock but sold them within half day and then restocked many times during the weekend. He could have sold about 80 GH/s just during the weekend.

Important thing is I am only making assumptions based on data I can see. If the in stock amount on the page is just random number I have no other proof. The same with order numbers. Go figure.

Let's me show you my calc:
I checked my order history and on 26th September I got the order #60xx. As today I see some 90xx order, so 3k new orders for 25 days.
Let's assume that 1/2 of these are "ghost" orders, so still 1500 orders are executed.
Let's assume again that 2/3 of these true orders are 1k6 shares, so the new hash added to the network is 0.16 * 1000 = 160ghs.
Yes you are right that we don't see much power added to the network last 3 weeks, so it rises some red flags.

But let's see the problem from other perspectives: Chris said that he doesn't mine LTC alone, so these 160ghs power could be well divided in multipool and some at doge. I didn't research further but I agreed that some of your warnings are legit but it can be explained and this doesn't reach a critical situation yet.

Offline skuser

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Re: LTCGear legit discussion
« Reply #88 on: October 20, 2014, 02:47:26 PM »
Ok I think you're bit pessimistic about ghost orders ratio however as for dogecoin mining it is completely ineffective due to huge difficulty caused by start of ltc/doge merged mining. Therefore for sure he isn't mining dogecoin...and there aren't any other cryptos with substantial hashrate you could hide even 100 ghs. Btw as we are talking the number of in stock items dropped to 32, so today almost 8ghs sold...If you try to create ghost order you'll notice number of items doesn't drop if you don't pay for order so we can probably lower ghost orders ratio...

Offline hawkfish007

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Re: LTCGear legit discussion
« Reply #89 on: October 20, 2014, 03:01:22 PM »
And please don't argue that this is not Ponzi because Chris is kind and pays on time. Better give me info what secret currencies is he mining with hundreds of GH/s because LTC's hashrate hasn't almost changed for month. I understand that this project surely started as serious one, but various unknown reasons (huge income of anniversary orders at the end of august and sudden inflow of big money?) can spoil man's mind....

This is just my observation, below is taken from bitcoinwisdom, Aug 1 network hashrate was 715,220 MH, Oct 19 network hashrate was 1,045 GH. Chris started offering the anniversary pack mid August and mentioned that with new generation of Asics quantity is not an issue anymore. In 2 1/2 months, network added at least 350 GH of hash rate. Now, who is adding this additional hashrate. As far as I know, KNC hasn't finished shipping their batch 1 yet and other manufacturer aren't selling anything and prepping themselves to sell $5/GH in December.

Oct 19 2014 36,510 0.96% 1,045 GH/s
Oct 16 2014 36,164 -1.53% 1,035 GH/s
Oct 12 2014 36,726 4.40% 1,052 GH/s
Oct 09 2014 35,179 -4.95% 1,007 GH/s
Oct 05 2014 37,011 2.18% 1,060 GH/s
Oct 02 2014 36,220 2.47% 1,037 GH/s
Sep 29 2014 35,348 1.61% 1,012 GH/s
Sep 25 2014 34,787 8.25% 996,051 MH/s
Sep 22 2014 32,136 -3.21% 920,152 MH/s
Sep 18 2014 33,203 0.52% 950,704 MH/s
Sep 15 2014 33,030 16.62% 945,761 MH/s
Sep 12 2014 28,323 0.71% 810,965 MH/s
Sep 08 2014 28,124 1.17% 805,267 MH/s
Sep 05 2014 27,799 2.87% 795,979 MH/s
Sep 01 2014 27,024 -3.74% 773,787 MH/s
Aug 29 2014 28,073 -1.40% 803,825 MH/s
Aug 25 2014 28,472 1.21% 815,234 MH/s
Aug 22 2014 28,131 0.13% 805,473 MH/s
Aug 18 2014 28,094 -4.08% 804,414 MH/s
Aug 15 2014 29,290 4.73% 838,674 MH/s
Aug 11 2014 27,968 4.27% 800,815 MH/s
Aug 08 2014 26,824 9.82% 768,041 MH/s
Aug 05 2014 24,425 -2.22% 699,365 MH/s
Aug 01 2014 24,979 2.64% 715,220 MH/s